Future Energy Scenarios for mid-Canterbury

We've developed future energy scenarios

Orion faces a massively different energy environment in the decades ahead, driven by climate change, new technology and the increasing demand for electricity.

We want to power a cleaner and brighter future with our community, and this means we need to plan our network to enable New Zealand's decarbonisation goals and choices.

By doing this we will help New Zealand reach its target of net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. As the energy environment changes, the future is of course uncertain. Having excellent data and information is vital for us to plan investment in our network, support our customers and community, and deliver on decarbonisation goals.

One of the important tools we use are future energy scenarios

What are future energy scenarios?

Future energy scenarios are a set of pathways for the future of energy in our region. They help us understand the changing needs of the region and the potential impacts and opportunities for our customers and community.

The scenarios reflect the possible pathways for development of new technology, new demands for and generation of electricity, and new ways that consumers might interact with the energy system.

The scenarios are not a forecast. They establish credible futures for the energy environment and help us understand the way that pathways could develop, and how we could influence them.

How we use the Future Energy Scenarios?

The scenarios will help us talk about the future of energy and shape the future energy environment.

Once we have identified a range of credible energy futures (the scenarios) we can then project a pathway to that future. We will model the impact of that pathway on our network, which will inform our strategic decisions, investment decisions, and innovation priorities. The scenarios will also be a basis for conversation and collaboration. For the scenarios to be effective they will need to be refined and improved, evolving with the changing energy environment.

We will use the scenarios to:

• Shape investment plans for our network
• Inform our strategy for long-term decarbonisation
• Prioritise research and innovation; and
• Continue the conversation about energy use in our region.

Orion Future Energy Scenarios

We have developed four scenarios that explore how the energy environment could change between now and 2050.

	Business as Usual (BAU) Existing electrification trends continue but no significant further shift towards decarbonisation occurs.
	Progress (P) We make progress towards a zero-carbon energy system, and some consumers are empowered to participate in the energy system, but full transition is not achieved by 2050.
	System Transition (ST) A transition to zero carbon energy system is achieved with significant technology change. Change is mostly centrally driven with little consumer participation or optimisation.
	Consumer & Place Based Transition (CPBT) Transition to zero carbon is driven by consumer optimisation and efficient collaborative local planning.

Central Scenario for Planning (CS) While the Future Energy Scenarios look to the long-term, out to 2050, we also need to plan and manage our electricity network in the short to medium term. We use a Central Scenario to fulfil our regulatory requirements and for asset management planning. This scenario that is different from the four Future Energy Scenarios as it is our best view of the next ten years (out to 2035) rather than a pathway that could develop out to 2050, as the future scenarios are.

What do the scenarios and modelling tell us?

At at high level, the scenarios and modelling tell us that under Business as Usual and Progress scenarios, climate change impacts are high. Under the System Transition and Consumer and Place Based Transition scenarios, climate change impacts are lower.

	Business as Usual	Our economy grows at the lower end of projections. Private vehicle use is the main source of transportation. Phase out of gas and coal is slow. Low uptake of rooftop solar.
	Progress	Our economy grows at the midpoint of projections. Uptake of private electric vehicles is slow, but expands rapidly. Phase out of gas and coal is relatively quick. Rooftop solar becomes more popular.
	System Transition	Our economy grows at the high end of projections. Near full electrification of private and heavy vehicles. Phase out of gas and coal. Rooftop solar becomes more popular.
	Consumer & Place Based Transition	Our economy grows strongly. There is a reduction in private vehicle use and a wider shift to public transportation. Phase out of gas and coal. Rooftop solar prices drop significantly and solar buyback schemes make it economical.
	Central Scenario	Strong population growth in Orion's region. Rapid electrification of transport. Electricity replaces gas in homes. Installation of rooftop solar continues at current rates for homes, but increases on businesses.

Check out the Future energy scenarios report for more information.